Huazhu Zheng Yu Li, Rongrong Gong, Jungang Lu, Xun Zhang, Zhaowei Hou, Shun Yang, Christopher Gomez, Yongjiao Wu, Hongming He 2026. Identifying region-specific pathways for sustainable water–energy–food nexus development under resource constraints. Energy 10.1016/j.energy.2026.143045
Highlights
- •Linked subsystem efficiencies, spatial inequality and WEF scenario assessment.
- •Identified water and energy efficiency bottlenecks in WEF coordination.
- •Regional distributional overlap explained 57.05% of spatial inequality.
- •Compared 27 scenarios to identify region-specific favorable combinations.
- •Stronger water conservation and tailored energy regulation favored coordination.
Abstract
Sustainable energy transitions in water-stressed regions are increasingly constrained by competing demands for water, energy, and food resources. This study develops an integrated assessment framework that links subsystem efficiency disparities, city-level spatial inequality and region-specific scenario comparisons to identify water–energy–food (WEF) coordination bottlenecks and differentiated development options under resource constraints. Using panel data from 53 cities in the Yellow River Basin, China, during 2003–2023, a Super-SBM model incorporating undesirable outputs evaluates subsystem ecological efficiencies. A coupling coordination degree model and Dagum Gini decomposition characterize coordination patterns and the sources of spatial inequality, while a GA-LSTM model evaluates 27 predefined development scenarios during 2024–2035. The results identify low water and energy utilization efficiencies as the principal constraints on WEF coordination, whereas food production efficiency exhibits comparatively higher performance. The basin remains at a marginal coordination level, with cross-regional distributional overlap accounting for 57.05% of spatial inequality. Among the predefined scenarios, S26 (I-I-M), S22 (I-M-B) and S25 (I-I-B) yield the highest projected mean WEF-CCD for the upstream, midstream and downstream regions, respectively. Under the specified assumptions, stronger water conservation and appropriate energy regulation improve projected coordination, while intensified food production may weaken system balance. These findings support differentiated policies that prioritize energy-use efficiency upstream, combine stronger water conservation with moderate energy regulation midstream, and improve water-use efficiency downstream, alongside city-specific measures addressing local resource constraints.
